Webinar: Key Drivers of ACO MSSP Results - What Predictive Analytics Can Tell Us

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Please join us on Thursday November 18th, 2021 at 1PM Eastern as Milliman’s Anders Larson, Mackenzie Egan and Robbie Richards present findings from their study analyzing recent ACO performance data in comparison to their previous analytics conducted on 2015 performance data, to determine drivers of MSSP savings and how they have changed, in the HealthcareWebSummit event: Key Drivers of ACO MSSP Results: What Predictive Analytics Can Tell Us.


Webinar: Thursday, November 18, 2021, at 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM Eastern

  • ACO characteristics determined to be strongly predictive of MSSP gross savings
  • How drivers of recent success vary from 2015 performance year results
  • The impact of changes in benchmarking methodology on ACO performance
  • The implications of ACO participating specialist and hospital roster size
  • The relationship between unplanned admissions and PCP E&M visits

Milliman Faculty: Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary; Mackenzie Egan, ASA, MAAA, Associate Actuary; and Robbie Richards, PhD, Data and Analytics Manager, Torch Insight

What are the key drivers of Accountable Care Organization Medicare Shared Savings Program gross savings, and how have they changed over time? Milliman researchers set about answering these questions, comparing current ACO performance analytics to a previous study conducted in 2015.

Much has changed since the authors published their 2015 study. Most notably, the CMS has made changes to many aspects of the program, including the benchmarking methodology and options for risk sharing. Additionally, participation in the program increased and ACOs have had more time to implement and refine their population health strategies. Finally, the number of ACOs in a two-sided version of the program has increased dramatically, with 150 ACOs accepting some level of risk for shared losses in 2019, compared with only three in 2015.

Considering the changes since 2015, the authors analyzed more recent MSSP results for ACOs to understand whether the conclusions from their original study still applied in today’s MSSP environment. Consistent with their previous analysis, the authors applied a machine learning algorithm known as a Random Forest to identify which of the nearly 220 ACO characteristics were most strongly associated with gross savings. The biggest advantage of the Random Forest algorithm is that it can handle a large number of features, including features that are highly collinear. Based on the results of the Random Forest, the authors then dove deeper into specific aspects of the data to better understand these relationships.

In this session, Milliman experts present their findings that the drivers of recent success are quite different and, in some cases, the opposite of what they were in 2015. With Pathways to Success, CMS endeavored to reshape the MSSP by adjusting incentives, encouraging greater accountability in ACOs, and offering options specific to each ACO’s ability to take on risk. Their analysis gives early indication that these changes are rewarding ACOs for attained efficiency levels, possibly enhancing the attractiveness of the program. Furthermore, the authors also see evidence of at least some correlation between tracks with downside risk and higher gross savings, supporting CMS’s case for accountability as a policy priority, though voluntary track selection may also be playing a role. Lastly, the authors see some indication that ACOs strongly emphasizing primary care are having greater success than their peers.

Registration Details

  • Individual Registration: $195
  • Individual Registration and Post-event materials - Includes webinar video and presentation pdf file: $240 for attendees
  • Post-event materials for non-attendees - Includes webinar video and presentation pdf file. Available after the event: $260

Register above or download a registration form. You can also register by phone: 209.577.4888. Corporate Site licensing also available. We look forward to your attendance!

MCOL Premium members receive a 50% discount on all Healthcare Web Summit events. Members can get the discount code by logging onto the Premium Member Website and then going to the Premium Member HealthWebsummit page. Non-members can learn about MCOL Premium memberships and sign-up to get the 50% discount on this and future events.

Need a Printable Form? Download a registration form you can fax or mail.

Cure for the Common Webinar

In addition to the main presentation, this webinar will include an opening introductory video, a brief moderated speaker interview, and audience Q&A. Within one business day of your registration, you'll receive login information. You will receive a reminder email 1 day and 1 hour before the live event.

One day after the live webinar, you'll receive a follow-up email which will include a link to the presentation slides. You’re also welcome to provide feedback via this email as well as submit additional questions to be forwarded to the speakers. For support before, during or after the event, please contact HealthcareWebSummit office at 209.577.4888.

Learning Objectives

After attending this webinar, attendees will be able to:

  • Identify which ACO characteristics have been determined to be strongly predictive of MSSP gross savings
  • Ascertain how drivers of recent ACO success varies from 2015 performance year results
  • Understand the impact of changes in benchmarking methodology on ACO performance
  • Consider the implications of ACO participating specialist and hospital roster size
  • Examine the relationship between unplanned admissions and PCP E&M visits in the context of ACO performance
  • Benefit from interactive learning including opportunities to engage with faculty with questions and discussion

        Who Should Attend

        Interested attendees would include:

        • C-Suite Executives
        • ACO Executives and Staff
        • Provider Network Executives and Staff
        • Provider Contracting Executives and Staff
        • Analytics Executives and Staff
        • Actuarial Executives and Staff
        • Business Intelligence Staff
        • Policy, Planning and Strategy Executives and Staff
        • Other Interested Parties

        Attendees would represent organizations including:

        • Accountable Care Organizations
        • Hospitals and Health Systems
        • Provider Networks
        • Clinically Integrated Networks
        • Medical Groups
        • Health Plans
        • Solutions Providers
        • Associations, Institutes and Research Organizations
        • Government Agencies
        • Media
        • Other Interested Organizations


        Anders Larson

        Anders Larson
        FSA, MAAA
        Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman

        Anders Larson is a principal and consulting actuary with Milliman’s Indianapolis office. Anders provides actuarial consulting services to state Medicaid agencies, commercial and Medicaid health plans, self-funded groups, and provider organizations such as ACOs.

        His experience includes but is not limited to: Financial projections, Capitation rate setting, Fiscal estimates for proposed policy change, Benchmarking of experience, Analysis of shared risk agreements, Incurred but not reported reserve estimates, and Research studies using large public data sources.

        Since 2012, he has been significantly involved with provider payment reform and value-based reimbursement, working on behalf of private payers, state governments, ACOs, and other provider organizations. He has a wide range of experience with predictive analytics applications, from traditional risk adjustment models to modern machine learning algorithms. From 2015 to 2018, Anders has served on the Society of Actuaries’ Predictive Analytics and Futurism section council. He was the section’s chair in 2018.

        Mackenzie Egan

        Mackenzie Egan
        ASA, MAAA
        Associate Actuary

        Mackenzie Egan is an Associate Actuary with Milliman’s Indianapolis office.

        Her work includes providing actuarial support for various state Medicaid agencies, including capitation rate setting, fee schedule development, financial analyses, analyses of shared risk agreements, and other financial projections. She has a Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science and Applied Statistics from Purdue University

        Robbie Richards, PhD

        Robbie Richards, PhD
        Data and Analytics
        Torch Insight

        Robbie Richards, PhD is Data and Analytics Manager, Torch Insight with Milliman’s MedInsight practice. He manages data and analytics processes and capabilities for a Data as a Service platform, including primary data collection, claims databases, and custom estimation and analytics projects.

        Robbie contributes to the Torch Insight product development roadmap and strategy, and delivers answers to complex data questions from clients and internal team members. Robbie received his PhD and Master of Arts from the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University.